The following are statements of certainty where there lies at least some arguable glimmer of false hope if nothing else. I’m assuming a worst case scenario because that is what has happened so far in this country in the last two years. In some ways, this is a classic “set the bar impossibly low and be pleasantly surprised” type of hedging the bets.
This is a pretty dumb thing to write in all honesty: the absolute most extreme worst case scenario basically ends in me being executed by the secret police on orders by Emperor President Donald Trump Jr 10 years down the line for being a dissident. The absolute best case scenario is me looking like a total reactionary idiot in two weeks when the Meuler report finally, miraculously destroys the Trump era forever.
Basically, what I’m confessing to is that this is mostly an exercised in self-absorbed ego. There is no reason to write this. To project gloom and doom on a pervered subconscience level is therapeutic.
That said, gun to my head if I was forced to bet my life on an outcome, this is genuinely what I believe is more likely to happen than any other scenario
Overreactions begin below:
This is the most important thing to understand about Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court.
Kavanaugh is not about Guilty vs. Innocent or Political Expediance – It’s about Exerting Power and Sending a Message
The Federalist Society is an organization dedicated to enforcing a textualist interpretation of the constitution onto the U.S Judicial system. THey do everything from mentoring and training young lawyers and prospective judges to actively lobying for judges who fit their criteria. More recently, Trump effectively put this organization in charge of generating a short list of nominees for him to pick from for the Supreme Court.
The first Trump nomation, Neil Gorsuch, got in without a hitch despite his extremely conservative and problematic views, because he was respected as a law official and a generally upstanding citizen by both sides of the aisle.
Brett Kavanaugh, well, you clicked. Presumably, you read this far. It’s assumed you know what he’s accused of.
This is what the Executive Vice President of the Federalist society had to say about the second list presented to Trump, the list that Kavanaugh was picked from.
Interviewer: “Is there a leading contender?”
VP: “No, there’s not…in my view, you can throw a dart at that list, and you’ll be fine.”
Why explain all this? It’s very important for everyone to understand that Brett Kavanaugh is, for everyone invested in his nomination, a completely expendable asset. This is not a Clarence Thomas situation, where the Bush administration was far more invested in his nomination because of how difficult it was to find a black judge with sufficiently conservative views so they could avoid the negative political optics of replacing Thurgood Marshall with a white judge.
Donald Trump called Christine Blasey Ford a “very credible witness.” Almost every Republican who voted for Kavanaugh believes he is guilty of his crime.
They just don’t care. It’s about sending a message and exerting power.
Doctor Ford’s testimony is the first real threat these subhuman filth have received as a collective from the #MeToo movement. They could have easily subbed Kavanaugh with another partisan hack and saved themselves the trouble. This was about a larger ideological fight, about proving to every victim of sexual assault in this country that there words meant nothing. We know for a fact that Trump is a sexual predator, and to be frank, I genuinely believe many of the Senators who voted for Kavanaugh’s confirmaiton today are too. I’d be willing to bed my life the number of U.S senators who have committed similar crimes to Kavanaugh is in the double digits, and most of those Senators are obviously (considering the type of behavior they’re condoning) Republican.
Republicans intentionally stated that they believe Dr. Ford’s testimony. They want us to know that they know she was sexually assaulted, and they want us to know that they’ll ignore it anyway. Two years ago, Republicans were outraged about Transexual bathroom equality laws, arguing that they were afraid their daughters and wives were at risk of rape. Today, they basically said that rape is fine as long as the rapist is white and not wearing a dress.
It is a huge and public victory that will suppress voter enthusiasm for the next election, and protect the morally bankrupt cronies they represent by ensuring women are less likely to report sexual assault in the future.
Of course, the Republican victory is far greater than cultural – it is also practical.
Kavanaugh’s Nomination Will Be Remembered in the same Historical Context as the Night of Long Knives in Nazi Germany
The Night of Long Knives in Nazi Germany was when Hitler had his main political rivals assassinated, thereby consolidating his power. Obviously, no one was assassinated today. That is because the modern dictatorship is functionally different from the historically understood authoritarian government.
The opposition party in the modern dictatorship is no longer assassinated and silenced, but rather rendered completely ineffective by electoral law and propoganda. Vladimir Putin is the model rathern than Hitler or Mousilini. Vladimir Putin consistently wins elections where voters primarily of the opposition party are conveniently dumped from the registry – just like voter registry dumps that are happening in this country right now in Ohio.
This voter registration dump, by the way, was deemed legal by the Supreme Court in a 5-4 decision – just like the Voting Rights Act was essentially nullified by a similar vote in this 2013 court case. Kavanaugh’s nomination swings the Supreme Court, essential in preventing Republicans from suppressing the vote, even further to the right. Yes, Kennedy was Republican – but considerably less so than either of Trump’s nominees, who are essentially political operatives supported by the aforementioned Federalist Society.
That’s not even accounting for the rapid erosion in campaign finance laws empowering the Republican’s rich allies to continue funding them. That’s a whole other well-known bag of worms.
As for propoganda, pointing out America’s most watched cable news channel is essentially state run propoganda is, well, trite. The rest is simply described as “Fake news,” a unique new feature for illeberal totalitarian “democracies” all around the world.
Then of course, there’s the time honored feature of classic dictators like Stalin sending his political opponents to prison, much like a certain orange-skinned president promised to his followers at rallies to “lock-her-up,” referring to his opponent Hillary Clinton.
The deck is already stacked against Democrats due to gerrymandering. Democrats have won 4 out of the last 5 popular votes for president, but only won the electoral vote – and therefor the actual presidency, 2 out of those 5. The will of the American people is being actively suppressed by outdated electoral systems designed for a society that was far less centralized and a technological age that required far more involvement by state and local government. Kavanaugh was confirmed by a vote of 51-49.
The president who nominated Kavanaugh received 3 million fewer votes than his political opponent. The 51 senators who voted “yes” represent 141.2 million American citizens. The 49 senators who voted “no” represent 181.8 million American citizens.
It is a snowball affect. The rigged system allowed Kavanaugh to be confirmed against the will of the people, his nomination will enable the supreme court to suppress the vote of the American people. These archaic systems were designed to prevent the “tyranny of the majority.” Instead, they have created a Tyranny of the Minority.
It’s not difficult to see where this goes. By far the two oldest Justices – Ginsberg and Beyer (85 and 80 respectively) – are both liberals. We will probably see Supreme Court misbalance of 6-3 in the Republicans favor before Trump’s term is over. That will give the Court virtually unlimited power to continue to suppress the majority’s vote. It won’t be long before a minority of 30% of the American population controls all levels of government, just as it does in Putin’s Russia.
That is how Kavanaugh’s nomination is historically analagous to Nazi Germany’s Night of Long Knives. It is the ultimate and total consolidation of power for a tyrannical and evil majority.
And then what?
Other countries have survived authoritarian far right dictorships.
No other country has ever had the economic and militaristic dominance of the United States on the global stage.
What if Trump’s successor is smarter but just as evil? What if Trump #2 uses the U.S’s economic and military influences to influence elections around the world much like Putin has attempted to. It’s hardly difficult to imagine such an effort succeeding in other countries, much like it did to some extent in the U.S. We are talking a worldwide epidemic of facism, ultra-nationalism, and of course, eventually genocide.
What if Trump #2 decides to make the internet an exclusive government controlled commodity – like in China. What if an entire world of far-right extremists controls the flow of information globally.
Or, what if Trump #2, instead of being smarter, is even dumber somehow. What if Trump #2 decides the issue of illegal immigration can only be solved by invading Central America?
These are again, worst case scenarios. Beyond the complete decay of U.S democracy, I can’t even comprehend to imagine what happens next, but there’s not a scenario where good things happen past that point.
In Conclusion: We’re fucked.